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Background There is an urgent need for the early identification of nondemented individuals at the highest risk of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia for early therapeutic interventions. Our goal was to evaluate whether a recently validated polygenic hazard score (PHS) can be integrated with known in vivo CSF or PET biomarkers of amyloid or tau pathology to prospectively predict cognitive decline and clinical progression to AD dementia in nondemented older individuals. Methods We evaluated 347 cognitive normal (CN) and 599 mild cognitively impaired (MCI) individuals. We first investigated whether PHS can predict CSF or PET amyloid and tau deposition. We evaluated differences in positive and negative predictive values of biomarker status, as a function of PHS risk. Next, we used linear mixed-effects (LME) to examine if PHS and biomarker status in conjunction, best predict longitudinal cognitive and clinical progression. Lastly, we used survival analysis to investigate whether a combination of PHS and biomarker positivity predicts progression to AD dementia better than using PHS or biomarker positivity alone. Findings In CN and MCI individuals, we found that amyloid and total tau positivity systematically varies as a function of PHS. For individuals in greater than the 50th percentile PHS, the positive predictive value for amyloid approached 100%. Similarly, for individuals in less than the 25th percentile PHS, the negative predictive value for total tau approached 85%. Beyond APOE, high PHS individuals with amyloid and tau pathology showed the fastest rate of longitudinal cognitive decline and time to AD dementia progression. Among the CN subgroup, we similarly found that PHS was strongly associated with amyloid positivity and the combination of PHS and biomarker status significantly predicted longitudinal clinical progression. Interpretation Among asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic older individuals, PHS considerably improves the predictive value of CSF or PET amyloid and tau biomarkers. Beyond APOE, PHS may be useful for risk stratification and cohort enrichment for MCI and preclinical AD therapeutic trials.

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