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Effect of a Sepsis Prediction Algorithm on Patient Mortality, Length of Stay, and Readmission

By Hoyt Burdick, Eduardo Pino, Denise Gabel-Comeau, Andrea McCoy, Carol Gu, Jonathan Roberts, Joseph Slote, Nicholas Saber, Jana Hoffman, Ritankar Das

Posted 30 Oct 2018
bioRxiv DOI: 10.1101/457465

Objective: To validate performance of a machine learning algorithm for severe sepsis determination up to 48 hours before onset, and to evaluate the effect of the algorithm on in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay, and 30-day readmission. Setting: This cohort study includes a combined retrospective analysis and clinical outcomes evaluation: a dataset containing 510,497 patient encounters from 461 United States health centers for retrospective analysis, and a multiyear, multicenter clinical data set of real-world data containing 75,147 patient encounters from nine hospitals for clinical outcomes evaluation. Participants: For retrospective analysis, 270,438 adult patients with at least one documented measurement of five out of six vital sign measurements were included. For clinical outcomes analysis, 17,758 adult patients who met two or more Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria at any point during their stay were included. Results: At severe sepsis onset, the MLA demonstrated an AUROC of 0.91 (95% CI 0.90, 0.92), which exceeded those of MEWS (0.71, P<.001), SOFA (0.74; P<.001), and SIRS (0.62; P<.001). For severe sepsis prediction 48 hours in advance of onset, the MLA achieved an AUROC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73, 0.80). For the clinical outcomes study, when using the MLA, hospitals saw an average 39.5% reduction of in-hospital mortality, a 32.3% reduction in hospital length of stay, and a 22.7% reduction in 30-day readmission rate. Conclusions: The MLA accurately predicts severe sepsis onset up to 48 hours in advance using only readily available vital signs in retrospective validation. Reductions of in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay, and 30-day readmissions were observed in real-world clinical use of the MLA. Results suggest this system may improve severe sepsis detection and patient outcomes over the use of rules-based sepsis detection systems.

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