Rxivist logo

Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: implications of climate change for public health vector control

By Catherine A. Lippi, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, M.E. Franklin Bajaña Loor, Jose E. Dueñas Zambrano, Nelson A. Espinoza Lopez, Jason K. Blackburn, Sadie J. Ryan

Posted 30 Aug 2018
bioRxiv DOI: 10.1101/404293 (published DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322)

Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.

Download data

  • Downloaded 338 times
  • Download rankings, all-time:
    • Site-wide: 53,197 out of 100,570
    • In epidemiology: 811 out of 1,556
  • Year to date:
    • Site-wide: 86,609 out of 100,570
  • Since beginning of last month:
    • Site-wide: 39,889 out of 100,570

Altmetric data

Downloads over time

Distribution of downloads per paper, site-wide


Sign up for the Rxivist weekly newsletter! (Click here for more details.)


  • 20 Oct 2020: Support for sorting preprints using Twitter activity has been removed, at least temporarily, until a new source of social media activity data becomes available.
  • 18 Dec 2019: We're pleased to announce PanLingua, a new tool that enables you to search for machine-translated bioRxiv preprints using more than 100 different languages.
  • 21 May 2019: PLOS Biology has published a community page about Rxivist.org and its design.
  • 10 May 2019: The paper analyzing the Rxivist dataset has been published at eLife.
  • 1 Mar 2019: We now have summary statistics about bioRxiv downloads and submissions.
  • 8 Feb 2019: Data from Altmetric is now available on the Rxivist details page for every preprint. Look for the "donut" under the download metrics.
  • 30 Jan 2019: preLights has featured the Rxivist preprint and written about our findings.
  • 22 Jan 2019: Nature just published an article about Rxivist and our data.
  • 13 Jan 2019: The Rxivist preprint is live!