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Patterns of recurrence after curative-intent surgery for pancreas cancer reinforce the importance of locoregional control and adjuvant chemotherapy.

By Rohan Munir, Kjetil Soreide, Rajan Ravindran, James J Powell, Ewen M. Harrison, Anya Adair, Stephen J. Wigmore, Rowan W. Parks, O James Garden, Lorraine Kirkpatrick, Lucy R Wall, Alan Christie, Ian Penman, Norma McAvoy, Vicki Save, Alan Stockman, David Worrall, Hamish Ireland, Graeme Weir, Neil Masson, Chris Hay, James-Gordon Smith, DJ Mole

Posted 28 Feb 2018
bioRxiv DOI: 10.1101/270884

Introduction: The pattern of recurrence after surgical excision of pancreas cancer may guide alternative pre-operative strategies to either detect occult disease or need for chemotherapy. This study investigated patterns of recurrence after pancreatic surgery. Methods: Recurrence patterns were described in a series of resected pancreas cancers over a 2-year period and recurrence risk expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (C.I.). Survival was displayed by Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: Of 107 pancreas resections, 69 (65%) had pancreatic cancer. R0 resection was achieved in 21 of 69 (30.4%). Analysis was based on 66 patients who survived 30 days after surgery with median follow up 21 months. Recurrence developed in 41 (62.1%) patients with median time to first recurrence of 13.3 months (interquartile range 6.9, 20.8 months). Recurrence site was most frequently locoregional (n=28, 42%), followed by liver (n=23, 35%), lymph nodes (n=21, 32%), and lungs (n=13, 19%). In patients with recurrence, 9 of 41 had single site recurrence; the remaining 32 patients had more than one site of recurrence. Locoregional recurrence was associated with R+ resection (53% vs 25% for R+ vs R0, respectively; OR 3.5, 95% C.I. 1.1-11.2; P=0.034). Venous invasion was associated with overall recurrence risk (OR 3.3, 95% C.I. 1.1-9.4; P=0.025). In multivariable analysis, R-stage and adjuvant chemotherapy predicted longer survival. Discussion: The predominant locoregional recurrence pattern, multiple sites of recurrence and a high R+ resection rate reflect the difficulty in achieving initial local disease control.

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