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Preliminary results of models to predict areas in the Americas with increased likelihood of Zika virus transmission in 2017.
M Elizabeth Halloran,
Ira M Longini,
Ana Pastore y Piontti,
D. Rebecca Prevots,
Amir S. Siraj,
Posted 18 Sep 2017
bioRxiv DOI: 10.1101/187591
Posted 18 Sep 2017
Numerous Zika virus vaccines are being developed. However, identifying sites to evaluate the efficacy of a Zika virus vaccine is challenging due to the general decrease in Zika virus activity. We compare results from three different modeling approaches to estimate areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission during 2017. The analysis focused on eight priority countries (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, and Peru). The models projected low incidence rates during 2017 for all locations in the priority countries but identified several sub-national areas that may have increased relative risk of Zika virus transmission in 2017. Given the projected low incidence of disease, the total number of participants, number of study sites, or duration of study follow-up may need to be increased to meet the efficacy study endpoints.
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