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Cost-effectiveness of Stockholm3 test and magnetic resonance imaging in prostate cancer screening: a microsimulation study

By Shuang Hao, Emelie Heintz, Ellinor Ostensson, Andrea Discacciati, Fredrik Jaderling, Henrik Gronberg, Martin Eklund, Tobias Nordstrom, Mark Clements

Posted 06 Apr 2021
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.31.21254617

Objective: Assess the cost-effectiveness of no screening and quadrennial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based screening for prostate cancer using either Stockholm3 or prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test as a reflex test. Methods: Test characteristics were estimated from the STHLM3-MR study (NCT03377881). A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a lifetime societal perspective using a microsimulation model for men aged 55-69 in Sweden for no screening and three quadrennial screening strategies, including: PSA[≥] 3ng/mL; and Stockholm3 with reflex test thresholds of PSA[≥]1.5 and 2ng/mL. Men with a positive test had an MRI, and those MRI positive had combined targeted and systematic biopsies. Predictions included the number of tests, cancer incidence and mortality, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Uncertainties in key parameters were assessed using sensitivity analyses. Results: Compared with no screening, the screening strategies were predicted to reduce prostate cancer deaths by 7-9% across a lifetime and were considered to be moderate costs per QALY gained in Sweden. Using Stockholm3 with a reflex threshold of PSA[≥]2ng/mL resulted in a 60% reduction in MRI compared with screening using PSA. This Stockholm3 strategy was cost-effective with a probability of 70% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of {euro}47,218 (500,000 SEK). Conclusions: All screening strategies were considered to be moderate costs per QALY gained compared with no screening. Screening with Stockholm3 test at a reflex threshold of PSA[≥]2ng/mL and MRI was predicted to be cost-effective in Sweden. Use of the Stockholm3 test may reduce screening-related harms and costs while maintaining the health benefits from early detection.

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