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LifeSim: A Lifecourse Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Millennium Birth Cohort in England

By Ieva Skarda, Miqdad Asaria, Richard Cookson

Posted 16 Feb 2021
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.12.21251642

We present a novel dynamic microsimulation model that undertakes stochastic transition modelling of a rich set of developmental, economic, social and health outcomes from birth to death for each child in the Millennium Birth Cohort (MCS) in England. The model is implemented in R and draws initial conditions from the MCS by re-sampling a population of 100,000 children born in the year 2000, and simulates long-term outcomes using life-stage specific stochastic equations. Our equations are parameterised using effect estimates from existing studies combined with target outcome levels from up-to-date administrative and survey data. We present our baseline projections and a simple validation check against external data from the British Cohort Study 1970 and Understanding Society survey.

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