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Negative Excess Mortality in Pneumonia Death caused by COVID-19 in Japan

By Junko Kurita, Tamie Sugawara, Yoshiyuki Sugishita, Yasushi Ohkusa

Posted 22 Jan 2021
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.22.21250283

Background: Since the emergence of COVID-19, cases of excess mortality from all causes have been very few in Japan. Object: To evaluate COVID-19 effects precisely, we specifically examine deaths caused by pneumonia and examine excess mortality attributable to pneumonia in Japan. Method: We applied the NIID model to pneumonia deaths from 2005 up through November, 2020 for the whole of Japan. Introduction of routine pneumococcal vaccination for elderly people and revision in ICD10 were incorporated into the estimation model. Results: No excess mortality was found for 2020. However, negative excess mortality was observed as 178 in May, 314 in June, and 75 in July. No negative excess mortality was not found between August and November Discussion and Conclusion: Significantly negative excess mortality might reflect precautions taken by people including wearing masks, washing hands with alcohol, and maintaining social distance. They reduced the infection risk not only of for COVID-19 but also of other infectious diseases causing pneumonia.

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