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The impacts of COVID-19 vaccine timing, number of doses, and risk prioritization on mortality in the US

By Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, Kaitlyn E Johnson, Remy Pasco, Spencer Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jason S McLellan, Lauren Ancel Meyers

Posted 20 Jan 2021
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.18.21250071

As COVID-19 vaccination begins worldwide, policymakers face critical trade-offs. Using a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, we find that timing of the rollout is expected to have a substantially greater impact on mortality than risk-based prioritization and adherence and that prioritizing first doses over second doses may be life saving.

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