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An Estimation of Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 by Age Class for Age Classes in Japan

By Junko Kurita, Takahide Hata, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa, Atsuko Hata

Posted 15 Jan 2021
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.14.21249854

Background: Infectiousness of COVID-19 by age class inferred from the infection source and by infected people might be different. However, studies of such infectiousness have not been reported. Object: The object of this study was estimation of reproduction numbers by age class of the source of infection and the infected persons. To do so, after examining a new procedure for reproduction number estimation, we checked infected places by age class of the source of infection and the infected persons. Method: We ignore patients who infected no one because their reliability might be lower than that of patients who infected more than one person. We estimated the reproduction number from the histogram of the number of the infected people by the same patient, assuming that the histogram follows an exponential distribution. Discussion and Conclusion: The obtained results demonstrated that the effective reproduction numbers for infection from children were very low. They were higher among adult and elderly people than among the same age class. Moreover, although the highest and second-highest infected places were other and at home with some exceptions, the data for infection at hospitals were remarkable among adults and elderly people. Among elderly people, infection at facilities for elderly was also high. Infections at nursing schools, schools, restaurants, and entertainment venues at night were negligible.

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