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Trends of COVID-19(Coronavirus Disease)in GCC Countries using SEIR-PAD Dynamic Model

By Ahmad Sedaghat, Seyed Amir Abbas Oloomi, Mahdi Ashtian Malayer, Amir Mosavi

Posted 11 Dec 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.29.20240515

Extension of SIR type models has been reported in a number of publications in the mathematics community. But little is done on validation of these models to fit adequately with multiple clinical data of an infectious disease. In this paper, we introduce the SEIR-PAD model to assess susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, super-spreader, asymptomatic infected, and deceased populations. SEIR-PAD model consists of 7-set of ordinary differential equations with 8 unknown coefficients which are solved numerically in MATLAB using an optimization algorithm. Four sets of COVID-19 clinical data consist of cumulative populations of infected, deceased, recovered, and susceptible are used from the start of the outbreak until 23rd June 2020 to fit with SEIR-PAD model results. Results for trends of COVID-19 in GCC countries indicate that the disease may be terminated after 200 to 300 days from the start of the outbreak depends on current measures and policies. SEIR-PAD model provides a robust and strong tool to predict trends of COVID-19 for better management and/or foreseeing effects of certain enforcing laws by governments, health organizations, or policymakers.

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