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Predicting COVID-19(Coronavirus Disease)Outbreak Dynamics Using SIR-based Models: Comparative Analysis of SIRD and Weibull-SIRD

By Ahmad Sedaghat, Amir Mosavi

Posted 30 Nov 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.29.20240564

The SIR type models are built by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which are strongly initial value dependant. To fit multiple biological data with SIR type equations requires fitting coefficients of these equations by an initial guess and applying optimization methods. These coefficients are also extremely initial value-dependent. In the vast publication of these types, we hardly see, among simple to highly complicated SIR type methods, that these methods presented more than a maximum of two biological data sets. We propose a novel method that integrates an analytical solution of the infectious population using Weibull distribution function into any SIR type models. The Weibull-SIRD method has easily fitted 4 set of COVID-19 biological data simultaneously. It is demonstrated that the Weibull-SIRD method predictions for susceptible, infected, recovered, and deceased populations from COVID-19 in Kuwait and UAE are superior compared with SIRD original ODE model. The proposed method here opens doors for new deeper studying of biological dynamic systems with realistic biological data trends than providing some complicated, cumbersome mathematical methods with little insight into biological data's real physics.

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