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A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom

By Swapnil Mishra, Jamie Scott, Harrison Zhu, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Axel Gandy

Posted 27 Nov 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.24.20236661

We propose and describe a model for the COVID-19 epidemic of the United Kingdom at the level of local authorities. The model fits within a general framework for semi-mechanistic Bayesian models of the epidemic, with some important innovations: for example, we estimate the proportion of infections resulting in deaths and reported cases and we model the infections explicitly as random variables. The model is designed to be updated daily based on publicly available data. We envisage the model to be useful for short term projections of the epidemic over the next few weeks and to estimate past local values such as the reproduction number of the epidemic in the past. The model fits are available on a public website,https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local. The model is currently being used by the Scottish government in their decisions on interventions within Scotland [1,issue 24 to now]

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