Hospital mortality and resource implications of hospitalisation with COVID-19 in London, UK: a prospective cohort study
Carmen Lopez Soto,
Posted 17 Jul 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.16.20155069
Posted 17 Jul 2020
Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had a significant impact on the National Health Service in the United Kingdom (UK), with over 33 000 cases reported in London by July 6, 2020. Detailed hospital-level information on patient characteristics, outcomes and capacity strain are currently scarce but would guide clinical decision-making and inform prioritisation and planning. Methods We aimed to determine factors associated with hospital mortality and describe hospital and ICU strain by conducting a prospective cohort study at a tertiary academic centre in London, UK. We included adult patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and followed them up until hospital discharge or 30 days. Baseline factors that are associated with hospital mortality were identified via semi-parametric and parametric survival analyses. Results Our study included 429 patients; 18% of them were admitted to ICU, 52% met criteria for ICU outreach team activation and 61% had treatment limitations placed during their admission. Hospital mortality was 26% and ICU mortality was 34%. Hospital mortality was independently associated with increasing age, male sex, history of chronic kidney disease, increasing baseline C-reactive protein level and dyspnoea at presentation. COVID-19 resulted in substantial ICU and hospital strain, with up to 9 daily ICU admissions and 41 daily hospital admissions, to a peak census of 80 infected patients admitted in ICU and 250 in the hospital. Management of such a surge required extensive reorganisation of critical care services with expansion of ICU capacity from 69 to 129 beds, redeployment of staff from other hospital areas and coordinated hospital-level effort. Conclusions COVID-19 is associated with a high burden of mortality for patients treated on the ward and the ICU and required substantial reconfiguration of critical care services. This has significant implications for planning and resource utilization.
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