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Risk factors mediating the effect of body-mass index and waist-to-hip ratio on cardiovascular outcomes: Mendelian randomization analysis

By Dipender Gill, Verena Zuber, Jesse Dawson, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Alice R Carter, Eleanor Sanderson, Ville Karhunen, Michael G. Levin, Robyn E Wootton, Derek M. Klarin, Phil Tsao, Kostas Tsilidis, Scott M. Damrauer, Stephen M. Burgess, Paul Elliott

Posted 16 Jul 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.15.20154096

Background: Higher body-mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but the extent to which this is mediated by blood pressure, diabetes, lipid traits and smoking is not fully understood. Methods: Using consortia and UK Biobank genetic association summary data from 140,595 to 898,130 participants predominantly of European ancestry, MR mediation analysis was performed to investigate the degree to which genetically predicted systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, lipid traits and smoking mediated an effect of genetically predicted BMI and WHR on risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD) and stroke. Results: The 49% (95% confidence interval [CI] 39%-60%) increased risk of CAD conferred per 1-standard deviation increase in genetically predicted BMI attenuated to 34% (95% CI 24%-45%) after adjusting for genetically predicted SBP, to 27% (95% CI 17%-37%) after adjusting for genetically predicted diabetes, to 47% (95% CI 36%-59%) after adjusting for genetically predicted lipids, and to 46% (95% CI 34%-58%) after adjusting for genetically predicted smoking. Adjusting for all the mediators together, the increased risk attenuated to 14% (95% CI 4%-26%). A similar pattern of attenuation was observed when considering genetically predicted WHR as the exposure, and PAD or stroke as the outcomes. Conclusions: Measures to reduce obesity will lower risk of cardiovascular disease primarily by impacting on downstream metabolic risk factors, particularly diabetes and hypertension. Reduction of obesity prevalence alongside control and management of its mediators is likely to be most effective for minimizing the burden of obesity.

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