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Significant Excess Mortality probably due to COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan until May, 2021

By Junko Kurita, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa

Posted 11 Jul 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.09.20143164

Background: No remarkable mortality attributable to COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test has been observed in Japan. Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model. Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through July, 2021 for the whole of Japan and up through May, 2021 for Tokyo. Results: Results in Japan show very few excess mortality in August and October, 2020 and May and June, 2021. It was estimated as 12, 104, 260 and 135, respectively. Conversely, in Tokyo, 1323 excess mortality was detected Discussion and Conclusion: We detected substantial excess mortality in Tokyo but a few in Japan. It might be important to continue to monitor excess mortality of COVID-19 carefully hereafter.

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