SARS-CoV-2 Community Transmission During Shelter-in-Place in San Francisco
Charles Y Chiu,
Bryan M Greenhouse,
Diane V. Havlir
Posted 17 Jun 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.15.20132233
Posted 17 Jun 2020
ABSTRACT Background: We characterized SARS-CoV-2 infections in a densely-populated, majority Latinx San Francisco community six-weeks into the city's shelter-in-place order. Methods: We offered SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-PCR and antibody (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG) testing, regardless of symptoms, to all residents (>=4 years) and workers in a San Francisco census tract (population: 5,174) at outdoor, community-mobilized events over four days. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 point prevalence (PCR-positive) and cumulative incidence (antibody or PCR-positive) in the census tract and evaluated risk factors for recent (PCR-positive/antibody-negative) versus prior infection (antibody-positive/PCR-negative). SARS-CoV-2 genome recovery and phylogenetics were used to measure viral strain diversity, establish viral lineages present, and estimate number of introductions. Results: We tested 3,953 persons: 40% Latinx; 41% White; 9% Asian/Pacific Islander; and 2% Black. Overall, 2.1% (83/3,871) tested PCR-positive: 95% were Latinx and 52% asymptomatic when tested. 1.7% of residents and 6.0% of workers (non-census tract residents) were PCR-positive. Among 2,598 census tract residents, estimated point prevalence of PCR-positives was 2.3% (95%CI: 1.2-3.8%): 3.9% (95%CI: 2.0-6.4%) among Latinx vs. 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0-0.4%) among non-Latinx persons. Estimated cumulative incidence among residents was 6.1% (95%CI: 4.0-8.6%). Prior infections were 67% Latinx, 16% White, and 17% other ethnicities. Among recent infections, 96% were Latinx. Risk factors for recent infection were Latinx ethnicity, inability to shelter-in-place and maintain income, frontline service work, unemployment, and household income <$50,000/year. Five SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic lineages were detected. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 infections from diverse lineages continued circulating among low-income, Latinx persons unable to work from home and maintain income during San Francisco's shelter-in-place ordinance.
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