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First peak of COVID-19 outbreak in Japan might pass as of April 26, 2020

By Junko Kurita, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa

Posted 01 May 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.26.20081315

Background: In Japan, as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak, voluntary restrictions against going out (VRG) have been applied. Object: We examined mobility information provided by Apple Inc. to a susceptible-infected-recovery model. Method: When applying a polynomial function to daily Apple data with the SIR model, we presumed the function up to a cubic term as in our earlier study. Results: Estimation results demonstrated R0 as 1.507 and its 95% confidence interval was [1.502, 1.509]. . The estimated coefficients of Apple data was 1.748 and its 95% confidence interval was [1.731, 1.788]. Discussion and Conclusion: Results show that mobility data from Apple Inc. can explain the entire course of the outbreak in COVID-19 in Japan. Therefore, monitoring Apple data might be sufficient to adjust control measures to maintain an effective reproduction number of less than one.

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