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Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence and severity in Great Britain: results from 2,266,235 users of the COVID-19 Symptoms Tracker app

By Ruth C. E. Bowyer, Thomas Varsavsky, Carole Sudre, Benjamin Murray, Maxim Freidin, Darioush Yarand, Sajaysurya Ganesh, Joan Capdevila Pujol, Ellen J Thompson, Elco Bakker, M. Jorge Cardoso, Richard Davies, Jonathan Wolf, Timothy D Spector, Sebastien Ourselin, Claire J Steves, Cristina Menni

Posted 27 Apr 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.23.20076521

Understanding the geographical distribution of COVID-19 through the general population is key to the provision of adequate healthcare services. Using self-reported data from 2,266,235 unique GB users of the COVID Symptom Tracker app, we find that COVID-19 prevalence and severity became rapidly distributed across the UK within a month of the WHO declaration of the pandemic, with significant evidence of urban hot-spots. We found a geo-social gradient associated with disease severity and prevalence suggesting resources should focus on urban areas and areas of higher deprivation. Our results demonstrate use of self-reported data to inform public health policy and resource allocation.

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