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A model to estimate regional demand for COVID-19 related hospitalizations

By Johannes O Ferstad, Angela Gu, Raymond Y. Lee, Isha Thapa, Andrew Y. Shin, Joshua A Salomon, Peter Glynn, Nigam Shah, Arnold Milstein, Kevin Schulman, David Scheinker

Posted 30 Mar 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.26.20044842

COVID-19 has quickly become a global pandemic that threatens to overwhelm hospital facilities throughout the United States. In order to aid community and hospital leaders, we created an interactive, quantitative model that predicts the demand for hospitalization for patients with COVID-19 based on county-level population characteristics, data from the literature on COVID-19, and data from online repositories. Using this information as well as user inputs, the model estimates a time series of demand for intensive care beds and acute care beds as well as the availability of those beds. The model, available online, is designed to be intuitive and interactive so that local leaders with limited technical or epidemiological expertise may make decisions based on a variety of scenarios. This complements high-level models designed for public consumption and technically sophisticated models designed for use by epidemiologists. The model is actively being used by several academic medical centers and policy makers, and we believe that further access will continue to aid community and hospital leaders in their response to COVID-19.

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