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Insignificant effect of counter measure for coronavirus infectious disease -19 in Japan

By Yoshiyuki Sugishita, Junko Kurita, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa

Posted 23 Mar 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.19.20037945

BackgroundTo control COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled in Japan for two weeks from 26 February to 13 March. It has been designated as voluntary event cancellation (VEC). ObjectThis study predicts the effectiveness of VEC enduring and after its implementation. MethodWe applied a simple susceptible-infected-recovery model to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during 14 January to VEC introduction and after VEC introduction to 8 March. We adjusted the reporting delay in the latest few days. ResultsResults suggest that the basic reproduction number, R0, before VEC introduced as 2.29 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was [2.19, 2.37] and the effective reproduction number, Rv, after VEC introduced as 1. 99; its 95% CI was [1.71,2.23]. Discussion and ConclusionNo significant effect of VEC was observed.

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