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Influence factors of death risk among COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China: a hospital-based case-cohort study

By Lin Fu, Jun Fei, Hui-Xian Xiang, Ying Xiang, Zhu-Xia Tan, Meng-Die Li, Fang-Fang Liu, Hong-Yan Liu, Ling Zheng, Ying Li, Hui Zhao, De-Xiang Xu

Posted 16 Mar 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035329

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) triggered by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been widely pandemic all over the world. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence factors of death risk among 200 COVID-19 patients. MethodsTwo hundred patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited. Demographic data and clinical characteristics were collected from electronic medical records. Biochemical indexes on admission were measured and patients prognosis was tracked. The association of demographic data, clinical characteristics and biochemical indexes with death risk was analyzed. ResultsOf 200 COVID-19 patients, 163 (81.5%) had at least one of comorbidities, including diabetes, hypertension, hepatic disease, cardiac disease, chronic pulmonary disease and others. Among all patients, critical cases, defined as oxygenation index lower than 200, accounted for 26.2%. Severe cases, oxygenation index from 200 to 300, were 29.7%. Besides, common cases, oxygenation index higher than 300, accounted for 44.1%. At the end of follow-up, 34 (17%) were died on mean 10.9 day after hospitalization. Stratified analysis revealed that older ages, lower oxygenation index and comorbidities elevated death risk of COVID-19 patients. On admission, 85.5% COVID-19 patients were with at least one of extrapulmonary organ injuries. Univariable logistic regression showed that ALT and TBIL, two indexes of hepatic injury, AST, myoglobin and LDH, AST/ALT ratio, several markers of myocardial injury, creatinine, urea nitrogen and uric acid, three indexes of renal injury, were positively associated with death risk of COVID-19 patients. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that AST/ALT ratio, urea nitrogen, TBIL and LDH on admission were positively correlated with death risk of COVID-19 patients. ConclusionOlder age, lower oxygenation index and comorbidities on admission elevate death risk of COVID-19 patients. AST/ALT ratio, urea nitrogen, TBIL and LDH on admission may be potential prognostic indicators. Early hospitalization is of great significance to prevent multiple organ damage and improve the survival of COVID-19 patients. SummaryIn this hospital-based case-cohort study, we found that serum urea nitrogen, TBIL, LDH and AST/ALT ratio, several markers of extrapulmonary organ injuries, were positively correlated with death risk of COVID-19 patients. We provide evidence for the first time that multiple organ damage on admission influences the prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Early hospitalization is beneficial for elevating the survival rate of COVID-19 patients especially critical ill patients.

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