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CoVID-19 in Japan: What could happen in the future?

By Nian Shao, Yan Xuan, Hanshuang Pan, Shufen Wang, Weijia Li, Yue Yan, Xingjie Li, Christopher Y. Shen, Xu Chen, Xinyue Luo, Yu Chen, Boxi Xu, Keji Liu, Min Zhong, Xiang Xu, Yu Jiang, Shuai Lu, Guanghong Ding, Jin Cheng, Wenbin Chen

Posted 23 Feb 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.21.20026070

COVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly Since December 2019. We have independently developed a novel statistical time delay dynamic model on the basis of the distribution models from CCDC. Based only on the numbers of confirmed cases in different regions in China, the model can clearly reveal that the containment of the epidemic highly depends on early and effective isolation. We apply the model on the epidemic in Japan and conclude that there could be a rapid outbreak in Japan if no effective quarantine measures are carried out immediately.

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