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A Note on NCP Diagnosis Number Prediction Model

By Yi Li, Xianhong Yin, Meng Liang, Xiaoyu Liu, Meng Hao, Yi Wang

Posted 23 Feb 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.19.20025262

ImportanceTo predict the diagnosed COVID-19 patients and the trend of the epidemic in China. It may give the public some scientific information to ease the fear of the epidemic. ObjectiveIn December 2019, pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. We aimed to use a mathematical model to predict number of diagnosed patients in future to ease anxiety on the emergent situation. DesignAccording to all diagnosis number from WHO website and combining with the transmission mode of infectious diseases, the mathematical model was fitted to predict future trend of outbreak. SettingOur model was based on the epidemic situation in China, which could provide referential significance for disease prediction in other countries, and provide clues for prevention and intervention of relevant health authorities. ParticipantsIn this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)We develop a simple but accurate formula to predict the next day diagnosis number:[Formula],where Ni is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, and was estimated as 0.904 at Feb 10. ResultsBased on this model, it is predicted that the rate of disease infection will decrease exponentially. The total number of infected people is limited; thus, the disease will have limited impact. However, new diagnosis will last to March. Conclusions and RelevanceThrough the establishment of our model, we can better predict the trend of the epidemic in China.

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