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Nomogram for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with acute pancreatitis

By Ning Ding, Cuirong Guo, Kun Song, Changluo Li, Yang Zhou, Guifang Yang, Xiangping Chai

Posted 11 Feb 2020
medRxiv DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.09.20019513

ObjectiveAcute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) associated with high mortality is the common complication in acute pancreatitis(AP). The aim of this study was to formulate and validate an individualized predictive nomogram for in-hospital incidence of ARDS in AP patients. MethodFrom January 2017 to December 2018, 779 individuals with AP were included in this study. They were randomly distributed into primary cohort (n=560) and validation cohort (n=219). Based on the primary cohort, risk factors were identified by logistic regression model and a nomogram was performed. The nomogram was validated in the primary and validation cohort by the bootstrap validation method. The calibration curve was applied to evaluate the consistency between nomogram and ideal observation. ResultsThere were 728 patients in the non-ARDS group and 51 in the ARDS group, with an incidence rate of about 6.55%. Five independent factors including white blood counts(WBC), prothrombin time(PT), albumin(ALB), serum creatinine(SCR) and triglyceride (TG) were associated with in-hospital incidence of ARDS in AP patients. A nomogram was constructed based on the five independent factors with primary cohort of AUC 0.821 and validation cohort of AUC 0.822. Calibration curve analysis indicated that the predicted probability was in accordance with the observed probability in both primary and validation cohorts. ConclusionsThe study developed an intuitive nomogram with easily available laboratory parameters for the prediction of in-hospital incidence of ARDS in patients with AP. The incidence of ARDS for an individual patient can be fast and conveniently evaluated by our nomogram.

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